技术分析 

技術分析(英語:Technical analysis)是指研究過去金融市場的資訊(主要是經由使用圖表)來預測價格的趨勢與決定投資的策略。[1]純理論上,技術分析只考慮市場或金融工具真實的價格行為,在假設其價格會反應所有在投資者經由其他渠道得知前的所有相關因素的前提之下。

技術分析的基本信仰建立在「歷史會不斷重演」,並試圖藉由大量的統計資料來預測行情走勢。

技術分析被交易者和金融專家們廣為使用,且有些研究表示,在外匯市場裡,技術分析的使用要比「基本分析」要來得廣泛。[2][3]尤金·法馬等學術界的人表示,技術分析的證據很少且可被效率市場假說所反駁,[4][5]但美國聯邦準備理事會和學術界裡也有一些研究表示,支持技術分析的證據是存在著的。[6][7][8]MIT金融專家羅耀宗說:「一些學術研究猜測……技術分析是一個從市場價格中擷取出有用資訊的有效方法。」[9]波頓·麥基爾亦說:「技術分析是學術界裡的詛咒。」[10]

  1. ^ John J. Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets (New York Institute of Finance, 1999), pages 1-5, 24-31.
  2. ^ Taylor, Mark P., and Helen Allen (1992). "The Use of Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of International Money and Finance, 11(3), 304–314.
  3. ^ Cross, Sam Y. (1998). All About the Foreign Exchange Market in the United States页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆), Federal Reserve Bank of New York chapter 11, pp. 113-115.
  4. ^ Fama, Eugene (May 1970). "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work,"页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆The Journal of Finance, v. 25 (2), pp. 383-417.,
  5. ^ Griffioen, Technical Analysis in Financial Markets页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆
  6. ^ Brock, William, Josef Lakonishok and Blake Lebaron (1992). "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," The Journal of Finance, 47(5), pp. 1731–1764.
  7. ^ Osler, Karen (July 2000). "Support for Resistance: Technical Analysis and Intraday Exchange Rates," FRBNY Economic Policy Review (abstract and paper here页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)).
  8. ^ Neely, Christopher J., and Paul A. Weller (2001). "Technical analysis and Central Bank Intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, 20 (7), 949–70 (abstract and paper here页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)).
  9. ^ Lo, Andrew W., Harry Mamaysky and Jiang Wang (2000). "Foundations of Technical Analysis: Computational Algorithms, Statistical Inference, and Empirical Implementation," Journal of Finance, v. 55 (abstract and paper here页面存档备份,存于互联网档案馆)), pp. 1705-1765.
  10. ^ 波頓·麥基爾, A Random Walk Down Wall Street pp. 139, 165



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